The Storm Prediction Center has indicated a severe weather watch may become necessary at some point this morning. This watch would be issued for Southeast Texas, the Coastal Plains, into the Coastal Bend and the Rio Grande Valley. A couple stronger storms are expected today which could produce quarter to half-dollar size hail along with localized damaging wind gusts over 60 MPH. A low-end tornado threat may develop in Southeast Texas as well. We’ll be watching trends this morning.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0195
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0729 AM CST WED MAR 09 2016

AREAS AFFECTED…DEEP S INTO SERN TX

CONCERNING…SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 091329Z – 091530Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE…60 PERCENT

SUMMARY…PERIODIC STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
ACROSS MUCH OF SRN AND COASTAL TX THROUGH MORNING…WITH WIND AND
HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE AS WELL
ESPECIALLY OVER SERN TX INTO SWRN LA LATER TODAY.

DISCUSSION…AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE NEWD JUST
AHEAD AND ALONG AN ADVANCING FRONT/OUTFLOW FROM NW OF HOUSTON INTO
NWRN LA. THESE STORMS HAVE ONLY SHOWN PERIODIC STRONG CORES…AND
LITTLE OR NO ROTATION/MESOCYCLONES DESPITE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.
IT IS LIKELY THAT LOW-LEVEL STRETCHING IS FAIRLY WEAK DUE TO
RELATIVELY COOL BOUNDARY LAYER BELOW THE LFC. HOWEVER…A
CONDITIONAL TORNADO THREAT EXISTS GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR AND AMPLE
INSTABILITY…SHOULD FORCING BECOME MORE FAVORABLE EITHER ALONG THE
BOUNDARY ITSELF…WITH POCKETS OF HEATING…OR ANY MESO LOW THAT CAN
FORM.

TO THE S…MORE ROBUST STORMS WITH HIGH ECHO TOPS AND HAIL CORES ARE
DEVELOPING IN CLUSTERS ACROSS DEEP S TX…WITH MOVEMENT PARALLEL TO
THE UPPER FLOW IN A NNEWD DIRECTION. MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW AMPLE
INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR A THREAT OF ORGANIZED STORMS AS
THEY CONTINUE NNEWD TOWARD THE MIDDLE TX COAST AND POSSIBLY
EVENTUALLY PIVOTING NEWD TOWARD SERN TX WHERE MODEL CONSENSUS
INDICATES PERIODIC STORMS THROUGH THE DAY. IN THE SHORT
TERM…SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AIR EXISTS ALONG THE MIDDLE TX COAST
WHICH MAY LIMIT THE NWD PROGRESSION OF THE S TX ACTIVITY.