The first storm of the day caused by the dryline has popped up near Breckenridge, TX. Already is has become a supercell with large hail up to the size of golfballs a possibility. That storm is moving east/northeast around 20 MPH. Additional storms will likely form by 4-5 PM and they’ll all trot east towards I-35/I-35W by the late afternoon/early evening hours. A severe thunderstorm watch will be issued shortly for portions of North Texas and possibility into the Big Country. Very large hail up to the size of baseballs will be possible with the strongest supercells. An isolated tornado can’t be ruled out.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0286 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0157 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN N TX CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY VALID 301857Z - 302000Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION IS INCREASING...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS. WW ISSUANCE LIKELY. DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY INITIATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN N TX AHEAD OF A SFC DRYLINE. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THIS REGION...WITH DEWPOINTS IN GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH THIS MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG MLCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE ACROSS THE MCD AREA. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE EWD TOWARDS THE METROPLEX THIS EVENING...POSING MAINLY A LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND RISK GIVEN SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ARE LIKELY. THE TORNADO RISK SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIMITED WITH MODEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW PER KDYX VWP AND 18Z KFWD SOUNDING.