2016-03-23_11-35-16

The latest morning weather model guidance indicates the dryline is going to be a bit slower to push east today. The result will be the risk of severe thunderstorms this evening occuring further west than previously expected. As such the Storm Prediction Center has shifted the category 2 (elevated) severe weather risk west to include all of North Texas. Uncertainty remains on how far south storms will fire this evening. It is possible a broken line of storms will develop into Central Texas tonight. Confidence in a squall line forming west of I-35 around 5-8 PM and moving east through I-35 and into Northeast/East Texas tonight is increasing. Some storms may produce large hail up to the size of golfballs and damaging wind gusts over 60 MPH. The threat for damaging hail will be highest when storms are still discrete. Once they congeal into a line the threat for damaging winds will increase. Based on the latest forecast it appears that a line of strong to severe storms will move east through the D/FW Metroplex around 9-11 PM. If storms are able to develop further south they would likely do so in a southwest fashion – thus impacting the eastern Hill Country first. That possibility will be explored this afternoon as mesoscale factors will play a role in the cap breaking.