Little has changed since our morning blog with regards to the chance for severe weather and heavy rain across parts of the state this week. A strong upper level low will approach the state tomorrow, become cut off from the main jetstream and drift around across northern Mexico and south Texas for several days this coming week. Disturbances out ahead of it will bring multiple rounds of heavy rain and the chance for severe storms. Model data rolling in tonight will help refine the forecast for the next several days, but for now, here’s our thoughts.
Sunday – Marginal chance of a few isolated strong to severe storms developing along the dryline in the panhandle as this first impulse from the approaching low arrives. Right now, it looks like the capping inversion will be too strong for this weak impulse to generate widespread storms. However, if one or two were to develop, hail and damaging winds would be the greatest threats.
Monday – The dryline will push further east into western north Texas and west central Texas by mid afternoon with the arrival of stronger forcing from the approaching upper level low. Storms are expected to develop along the dryline Monday afternoon across western north Texas, western central Texas and southwest Texas by early afternoon and building east/northeast throughout the evening and overnight hours. The storms that develop right along the dryline will have the greatest potential to become severe with large hail, frequent lightning and damaging winds as the main threat. The tornado threat is low, but is not completely zero either. Folks who live in the Slight Risk area outlined below will need to pay close attention to the weather Monday afternoon and throughout the evening hours. Heavy rainfall through Monday night will also be likely; however, with recent lack of rain across the region, it will take a while before flooding becomes an issue.
Tuesday – The upper low will move into northern Mexico and a cold front will begin to approach from the northwest and begin to interact with an abundance of moisture and instability in place out ahead of the dryline. Rainfall, heavy at times with embedded strong to severe storms, will already be ongoing during the morning hours across central, northern and northeast Texas. Additional strong to severe storms are expected to develop by mid-day both ahead of and behind the front as it moves southeast into western north Texas. The most concerning will be the storms that can develop and become severe out ahead of the front across parts of north central, northeast and central Texas where the atmosphere will be most unstable. There will be a risk of a few tornadoes on Tuesday across these regions, so you’ll want to pay close attention to this weather situation.
Rainfall – In addition to the above severe weather threats, multiple rounds of heavy rainfall will be likely with these storms across much of the eastern half of the state through at least the middle of the week. Our soils are pretty dry, and since the amount of rainfall depicted below is going to fall over the course of several days, widespread major flooding is not expected to become an issue. Flash flooding will be most likely across northeast and east Texas as storms may tend to train along the frontal boundary as it moves into this region dropping anywhere from 7 to 10 inches from east Texas into Louisiana. As always, we will continue to closely monitor this over the coming days, so be sure to check back with us tomorrow morning for the latest update!