Conditions across a majority of the state are expected to remain calm and rain-free overnight. Temperatures across most of the state will be a good 10 degrees warmer that what we saw last night as southerly winds and increasing moisture begin to return. Widespread patchy to dense fog is possible across south central and south Texas tomorrow morning. Other than that, no other hazards to speak of!
Tuesday, we will see increasing clouds across south into central and north central Texas throughout the day as moisture continues to advect north from the Gulf ahead of our next upper level system. We will also begin to see scattered light showers across the southern half of the state which will continue to expand northward into central and north Texas throughout the day tomorrow and tomorrow night. Severe weather is not expected during this time period, but we could see a couple of sub-severe storms develop with some gusty winds and lightning as the main threats overnight into early Wednesday.
For Wednesday, chances of rain and strong to severe storms increases as our next upper level system arrives. A dryline will push east across west central Texas early on Wednesday eventually stalling out just west of the DFW metroplex by Wednesday evening. Abundant moisture will be in place east of the dryline during the day with dewpoints reaching the mid to upper 60s. Instability levels are forecasted to reach moderate levels early on across west central Texas shifting east during the day. All of these ingredients combined will set the stage for scattered strong to severe storms both along the dryline and out ahead of the dryline during the day Wednesday. The Storm Prediction Center currently has a Slight Risk of severe weather outlook across a large portion of north central, northeast, east and southeast Texas for Wednesday. Large hail looks like it will be the primary threat, but we can’t rule out an isolated tornado or two, especially during the afternoon and evening hours.
What isn’t abundantly clear right now is how much early-day precipitation across central, north central, northeast, east and southeast Texas will impact the severity of storms later in the afternoon as the dryline pushes east towards the I-35 corridor around the same time the best lift from the upper level low arrives. Widespread rain and cloud cover and work to stabilize the near-surface atmosphere, decreasing instability levels and making it more difficult for severe storms to develop. If early-day rain shifts off to the east/northeast early enough during the day, the near-surface atmosphere may have time to recover enough for severe storm development Wednesday afternoon and evening…especially near and east of the I-35 corridor. A cold front will also move in overnight which will shift the highest concentration of storms Wednesday night into the eastern half of the state. Additional data will roll in overnight, so be sure to check back with us tomorrow for the latest on Wednesday’s severe weather threat. And, as always, have a severe weather safety plan in place and ready to go should severe weather develop and impact your location!