It has been a long morning as you can probably imagine. When I said brief tornadoes were possible this morning I didn’t think we would have them occur in the western D/FW Metroplex. Those and the enhanced damaging winds have made for an active morning. The squall line is now moving into Northeast Texas, East Texas, and will be entering the Brazos Valley shortly. The leading edge of the line still has some segments capable of producing wind gusts over 60 MPH. We’ll be watching for any individual thunderstorms that can develop ahead of the line through the early afternoon hours. As demonstrated in the D/FW Metroplex earlier the ingredients are in place for rotating thunderstorms.
By early afternoon the squall line should be into East Texas and Southeast Texas. There may be a secondary round of rain and storms in the D/FW Metroplex around lunchtime. Those storms are not expected to be severe. Behind the line(s) we’ll be watching for clearing skies. There is a slight chance that a couple supercells may fire up southwest of the D/FW Metroplex late this afternoon. We would need several hours of sun and a well-timed piece of energy aloft to overcome sinking air left in the wake of the squall line. If we do get a storm to fire it could become severe with large hail, localized damaging winds, and even a tornado.
By 4 PM the squall line should be east of Interstate 45. Skies across the Interstate 35 corridor back into the Hill Country and Southwest Texas will likely be in the process of clearing. We’ll have to start watching for any isolated thunderstorms that may develop. Low-level wind shear will be weaker this afternoon but residual outflow boundaries from this morning’s storms could locally enhance wind shear. I can’t say where we may see storms fire up – only that it could happen in the eastern Big Country, eastern Concho Valley, into North and Central Texas. If sinking air behind the squall line is too strong than we may not have to deal with that issue.
By 6 PM an area of thunderstorms will likely be moving into South Texas from Mexico. Some of these storms may be severe with hail and damaging wind gusts. We’ll have to closely watch for any discrete storms as the enviornment across South Texas, the Coastal Plains, and Southeast Texas will be highly favorable for rotating storms tonight. At this point we’ll also be watching for signs of isolated storm development in western North Texas and western Central Texas.
By 9 PM the HRRR weather model has several thunderstorms underway across Southeast Texas, the Coastal Plains, and South-Central and Central Texas. The enviornment will be supportive of severe weather – including a tornado risk. This will be a nighttime event so I encourage folks to have a way to receive weather warnings. Its looking busy.
By midnight we should see an increase in thunderstorm coverage across the Big Country, North Texas, East Texas, and the Brazos Valley. More isolated – yet significant storms may be underway in South-Central Texas. The severe weather threat will be highest along and south of Interstate 20 tonight with hail and damaging wind gusts possible. The highest tornado threat will be in South-Central Texas, the Coastal Plains, and Southeast Texas where low-level wind shear values will be highest. Flash flooding will also be a concern tonight as very heavy rainfall rates are a good bet. It’ll be a loud night for sure.
Just like we saw this morning and on Monday the forecast can change on a dime. The atmosphere doesn’t read and certainly does not care what time of day or what time of year it is. Don’t take this forecast as a fact. There will undoubtedly be surprises. Hopefully we can get through the night without any more significant severe weather – but I can’t guarantee that. The latest severe weather outlook for tonight highlights where we could be dealing with more storms again tonight. The tornado threat will be highest in the enhanced risk zone, shown in orange. An isolated tornado can’t be ruled out anywhere in the yellow.