Heavy rain and thunder continue across parts of southeast Texas, south central Texas and East Texas this evening. I suppose you could call this Round 2, and it’s looking highly likely we’ll see Round 3 late tonight and early tomorrow as additional storms continue to develop over the Gulf waters. The Storm Prediction Center’s latest update keeps the far southeastern edge of the state within a Slight Risk for severe weather. So far, we’ve seen very few instances of severe weather this afternoon. However, conditions remain favorable for the development of stronger storms along the upper coastal plains and into Louisiana late tonight into early Thursday as Round 3 makes it onshore. Sufficient instability with increasing lift from the approaching low will provide an environment favorable for a couple of severe storms containing damaging wind gusts and possibly one or two tornadoes. This is not a high probability, but it’s there.
I’m sure you’re tired of reading this by now, but flooding will continue to be an issue overnight into early Thursday. The latest Storm Prediction Center precipitation analysis targets 2+ inch per hour rainfall rates likely during this period as moisture is channeled between a couple of stalled atmospheric boundaries situated across southeast Texas. These boundaries have effectively channeled gulf moisture over a rather narrow corridor creating a series of training storms over the past 12 to 18 hours. So far, we’ve only seen reports of nuisance flooding across southeast Texas, but this will likely become much more problematic by early tomorrow. Expect a rough commute tomorrow morning and be sure to check local news for road conditions before heading out the door and allow extra time to reach your destination.
Here’s how the radar might shape up overnight and through 9am tomorrow. The following images were pulled from the latest run of the high-resolution HRRR forecast model. David will be up tonight and early tomorrow providing coverage and the latest updates, so be sure to check back before you head out tomorrow!