The squall line we expected to develop last night never happened. That means most of South Texas, the Coastal Plains, and Southeast Texas – while seeing some storms – didn’t deal with too much overnight. The morning weather balloon sounding from Corpus Christi indicates the cap was stronger than forecast. That was a busted forecast on our part but alas we still have to figure out what will happen today. At the time of this blog writing we’re watching two focused areas of convection. The first is across Northeast Texas, East Texas, and into northern sections of the Houston Metro. This first round of rain brought flooding to locations from just east of Waco through Corsicana to Tyler and Texarkana. The southern fringes of that convection are a bit stronger now with localized gusty winds. All of the precipitation is moving northeast. The second area of convection we’re monitoring is across South Texas into the Rio Grande Valley. This is where we expected a squall line to initially form last night.
Short-term model guidance suggests additional storms may form as the ongoing storms move northeast into the Coastal Plains this morning. Those storms will move into Southeast Texas by late morning. We may end up getting a break in rain along the I-35 corridor this afternoon. More rain is expected to develop tonight – but severe weather will be unlikely.
The Storm Prediction Center has issued a level 2 risk of severe weather for Southeast Texas and East Texas. A level 1 risk of severe weather extends into the Coastal Plains and into the Rio Grande Valley. I believe instances of severe weather will be more isolated compared to yesterday. Wind shear values will continue to support a few organized thunderstorms. The strongest storms may produce localized damaging wind gusts near 60 MPH. An isolated tornado threat is possible but not expected to become a widespread/significant problem.
The widespread rain ongoing in East Texas is producing locally enhanced rainfall rates. A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for much of Northeast Texas, East Texas, and Southeast Texas through the evening hours. I do believe move rain/storms will move into the region later today. Widespread rain totals of 1 to 5 inches will be possible. Isolated totals could approach 8 inches by Thursday morning.
Rain chances will continue off and on for the remainder of the week. The severe weather threat looks low tonight and on Thursday. We may see some risk of strong storms return on Friday but that is too conditional to highlight in an official outlook right now.