The severe weather threat will continue to diminish across North Texas for the next couple of hours. A significant flash flood threat will continue across Palo Pinto, Parker, Wise, into perhaps Denton and Cooke counties through midnight. Several inches of rain have fallen and water rescues are being conducted. We should have a couple of hours before the next round of thunderstorms begins to develop.
The following graphics are from the 7 PM run of the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) weather model. This model is run hourly. At 12 AM Tuesday the HRRR has begun developing several thunderstorms in the Permian Basin into Southwest Texas. These storms could be strong to severe with large hail and damaging wind gusts. The tornado threat will be low, but not totally zero. By 3 AM the storms have organized into a squall line. You’ll note the bow-shape across the Big Country with the line extending south through the Concho Valley. That bowing indicates the potential for damaging wind gusts. Hail would also be possible. By 6 AM Tuesday the HRRR has the squall line in Northwest Texas extending to just west of Interstate 35 in North and Central Texas. Damaging wind gusts would be possible on the leading edge of the line in North Texas and Central Texas. Small hail would also be possible. Heavy rain would be the most likely threat of all with the potential for localized flooding. This line of storms could impact the D/FW Metroplex during the morning rush hour. Finally the model has the squall line pushing into Northeast Texas and eastern sections of North Texas by 9 AM. Moderate rain would still be falling in North Texas.
I want to caution you that the weather tonight may not play out as depicted by the HRRR weather model. Its a good model but its not infallible. Its entirely possible the squall line ends up being further west or less organized. The purpose of this blog is to give a heads up that the weather could get rough tonight and on Tuesday morning. The strongest storms in the squall line may produce wind gusts over 65 MPH. A brief tornado would not be out of the question but it would likely only serve to enhance the damaging wind potential. Pockets of hail may also occur. The risk of flash flooding would also exist – especially in parts of North Texas where heavy rain has already fallen tonight.