Thunderstorms are increasing in coverage across western North Texas. At the time of this writing none of the storms were severe. Activity is moving north/northeast around 30-40 MPH. It seems plausible these storms may impact the western sections of the D/FW Metroplex through 6 PM. There are indications from short-range models that storms may then impact the northwestern half of the metroplex through mid-evening. Some of the storms may become marginally severe with a risk of quarter size hail.
The threat for severe weather will increase late tonight across the eastern Permian Basin, Big Country, and Northwest Texas. A piece of energy aloft will help ignite a few thunderstorms. The atmosphere will be quite unstable with strong wind shear in place. Storms may become severe with a threat of damaging hail, strong winds, and even a tornado. The complex of storms will move northeast into Northwest Texas before dawn on Tuesday. Storms will then move into Oklahoma by mid-morning Tuesday. Folks out that way should have their weather radios on tonight and a way to receive weather warnings. The complex of storms may be quite strong.