Northwest flow aloft will keep us mostly dry between now and Sunday. A piece of upper level energy will zippy skippy across Oklahoma overnight generating a small chance for a few showers and possibly a storm or two across far northeast Texas during the overnight hours. Winds will also pick up as a cold front arrives across northern Texas overnight into early tomorrow. This cold front will not have much of an impact on temperatures tomorrow, but it will drag drier and slightly cooler air in behind it. Ahead of the front tomorrow morning, we’ll likely see areas of patchy fog develop along the central Texas coast. Lows tonight will be seasonal across the northern half of the state…much warmer and above seasonal averages further south.
Highs will be close to seasonal across northern Texas tomorrow, 10-15 degrees above seasonal averages across south and south central Texas.
Now that Meteorological Spring has begun, we have to start watching the long term forecast models for chances of rain and storms. Based on what we’re seeing right now, our next rain chances come early next week as the first of several upper level systems drops down across the desert southwest and ejects over our state by the middle of the week. In response to the approaching upper level system, a surface low will develop across northeastern NM by Friday afternoon which will cause surface winds to come around from the south and begin to pull gulf moisture back up into the state. Best forcing from the upper level low looks like it will not arrive until sometime on Sunday when we could begin to see several chances for both rain showers and possibly a few thunderstorms through at least the middle of next week. It’s still too far out to make any projections about the probability of severe weather with this next system, but we will keep our eyes on it and continue to keep y’all updated!