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Isolated Storms Possible through Mid-Morning in North Texas

2016-03-17_2-57-51

Isolated thunderstorm development has occurred over western North Texas early this morning. These thunderstorms are being generated by weak lift aloft and a nearby warm front. While elevated in nature there is the possibility of hail up to the size of quarters with the stronger cores. I’m not expecting widespread thunderstorm development or a widespread severe weather threat this morning. A few storms will remain possible over Northern Texas through the mid-morning hours. Activity is moving east around 25 MPH. Its not out of the question one or two storms moves towards the D/FW Metroplex for the morning rush. We’ll keep an eye on things. As always you can track this activity with our free interactive weather radar by clicking here.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0222

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NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0213 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016

AREAS AFFECTED…NCNTRL TX

CONCERNING…SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 170713Z – 170945Z

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PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE…5 PERCENT

SUMMARY…A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK

ACROSS NCNTRL TX. WW ISSUANCE WILL NOT EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION…LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DIFFUSE BOUNDARY EXTENDING

EAST TO WEST ACROSS CNTRL TX WITH ELY WINDS LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF

THE BOUNDARY ACROSS MOST OF NORTH TX. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE

DEVELOPING WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY OVER THE TOP OF A SHARP

TEMP INVERSION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. A 30 TO 35 KT LOW-LEVEL JET IS

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LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST TX AND THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO WARM ADVECTION

ACROSS NCNTRL TX WHICH IS AIDING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. IN

ADDITION…WSR-88D VWPS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN NCNTRL TX SUGGEST

EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS IN THE 40 TO 50 KT RANGE WHICH WILL MAKE STORM

ROTATION POSSIBLE. THE STRONGER STORMS SHOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE

MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND STEEP

MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 8.0 C/KM. THE LATEST SHORT-TERM MODEL

SOLUTIONS KEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NCNTRL TX ISOLATED WITH

ONLY ONE OR TWO MORE STORMS INITIATING THROUGH DAYBREAK. CELLS MAY

BE CONDUCIVE TO SPLIT DUE TO UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES ABOVE THE

SFC INVERSION.

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David Reimer

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