2016-02-05_15-30-01

Elevated to near-critical fire danger will return to portions of Texas on Saturday. An area of enhanced fire danger has been highlighted in the Rio Grande Valley, Deep South Texas, into Southwest Texas for Saturday afternoon. This risk runs roughly along and south of a Del Rio to San Antonio line. Fuels are dry across much of Texas but that is the region where weather conditions will help promote an increased risk of fast-moving fires.

18Z North American Model - Relative humidity values mid-afternoon on Saturday

18Z North American Model – Relative humidity values mid-afternoon on Saturday

By early Saturday afternoon we expect temperatures to rise into the low and mid 60s in the regions mentioned previously. Relative humidity values are expected to drop below 20 percent. We do note that RH values will drop below 30 percent across the Texas Panhandle, West Texas, Big Country, Permian Basin, Concho Valley, and Hill Country. The reason those locations are not currently highlighted is due to relatively light winds. If a fire develops anywhere it could spread. The fire weather outlooks highlight danger presented by vegetation moisture, relative humidity values, surface temperatures, and wind speed.

18Z North American Model - projected surface winds mid-afternoon on Saturday

18Z North American Model – projected surface winds mid-afternoon on Saturday

Winds tomorrow afternoon will increase to around 20 MPH out of the northwest across South-Central Texas, South Texas, the Coastal Plains, and the Rio Grande Valley. Increased cloudiness and the chance for a few sprinkles will keep RH values higher across North and Central Texas into the Coastal Plains and Southeast Texas. It certainly is possible we could see an elevated fire danger expand northwest/north from the current outlook. [clickToTweet tweet=”Fire departments in S TX & RGV should be prepared for active fire weather conditions on Saturday.” quote=”Fire departments in Southwest Texas, South Texas, and the Rio Grande Valley should be prepared for active fire weather conditions on Saturday.”]Any fire that develops will have the potential to spread quickly and require additional resources to contain. Northwest winds will promote active heads to the south and east.