When you step outside this morning you’ll likely notice temperatures are fairly warm for a February morning. Not only is it warm but we’re seeing increasing moisture levels. The result of that increasing moisture is morning fog. Like previous days we’ll see pockets of dense fog dissipate after 9 AM. Most of it should be gone by late morning. Clouds will definitely be more noticeable today. A high pressure over West Texas will keep precipitation chances low until Sunday.

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Even with partly to mostly cloudy skies temperatures will once again be very warm this afternoon. The Permian Basin, Big Country, Deep South Texas, and the Rio Grande Valley will take the ice cream today with middle to upper 80s for high temperatures. The remainder of Texas will top out in the middle 70s to lower 80s. Isn’t it nice when we have fairly uniform temperatures? It keeps me from having to write out a novel.

HRRR weather model showing possible relative humidity values around 2 PM this afternoon

HRRR weather model showing possible relative humidity values around 2 PM this afternoon

The western half of Texas will remain under the influence of a dry airmass today. Relative humidity values this afternoon will drop below 20 percent across the western half of Texas. Slightly higher humidity values can be expected across the eastern half of Texas today thanks to increasing moisture. Surface fuels continue to dry out. Compared to Thursday winds will be much lighter. That’ll lessen the risk for fast-moving wildfires but that risk won’t be gone until we get rain. Any fire that develops this afternoon could become a handful to deal with.

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Low temperatures for tonight into Saturday morning will be close to average highs for February across the eastern half of Texas. Dewpoints in the 40s and 50s will keep temperatures in the 50s to low 60s across the eastern two-thirds of Texas. Some spots like the Concho Valley and Hill Country could drop off into the lower 50s. The Panhandle, West Texas, and Permian Basin will be in the upper 30s to middle 40s as drier air holds its ground.

Potential rain totals through Tuesday morning

Potential rain totals through Tuesday morning

Rain chances will increase Sunday and Monday across the eastern two-thirds of Texas. This has the potential to be a good soaker for parts of East Texas and Southeast Texas where over an inch of rain may fall. Half an inch to one inch of rain will be possible across North Texas and Central Texas. A quarter inch of rain may fall across the Big Country, Concho Valley, and South Texas. Severe weather is unlikely although a few storms with small hail may occur. Exact rain totals will vary and we’ll refine that aspect of the forecast as we get closer to Sunday.