A weak cold front will creep through the state today but will not have much of an impact on our highs this afternoon. Strong south winds ahead of the front will keep conditions breezy and we’ll continue to see an increase in cloud cover this morning along and east of the I-35 corridor. Highs today will once again be well above normal for this time of the year leaving it feeling more like April than the end of February.
Strong southerly winds will be present today across north and central Texas and across south Texas where gusts around 25mph will be likely. The cold front has already entered the panhandle region where winds will gust from the north by early this afternoon. The western half of the state will enjoy clear skies this afternoon; however, the eastern half of the state will continue to see mostly cloudy skies this morning, but those should begin to scatter out a bit by later this afternoon.
Lows tonight will drop into the 30s across the panhandle, 40s across west and west central Texas where humidity levels will be lower overnight. For north, central and southern Texas where humidity levels will be increasing, lows will only drop down into the 50s and 60s.
A strong upper level low will approach on Monday, but will remain too far north of Texas to bring much of a chance for severe weather during this timeframe. Best chances for seeing any rainfall on Monday will be across northeast Texas. The chance of severe storms won’t arrive until early Tuesday as a strong cold front arrives. We will have sufficient instability in place on Tuesday along and ahead of the frontal boundary, but the atmosphere is expected to have a fairly strong capping inversion which will limit the chance of storm development. If the front provides sufficient lift and the cap can be eroded, we could see a few strong to severe storms with gusty winds and hail as the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center has placed much of north, central, east, southeast and south Texas under a Marginal Risk of seeing severe weather on Tuesday. The timing for rain and storm development right now appears to be as follows: Early Tuesday across north and northeast Texas, mid-day Tuesday along and south of the I-20 corridor, late-day Tuesday across south central Texas arriving along the coast during the early evening hours. We will continue to monitor this development and provide updates as it gets closer!