The latest update from the Storm Prediction Center indicates the likelihood of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch to be issued across the Trans Pecos and Edwards Plateau region within the next couple of hours. Storms across the region have remained below severe limits so far this evening, but a strengthening low level jet and increasing lift from the approaching upper level low, will lead to intensification of existing storms and more widespread thunderstorm development over the next several hours. Storms, some reaching severe limits with 60mph winds and 1 inch hail, will be likely across the region through the early morning hours as they head southeastward into the Edwards Plateau region. The most likely storm mode will be the evolution of a squall line which will likely impact areas between Austin and San Antonio around or just after midnight tonight. Damaging winds, frequent lightning and hail up to 1 inch will be likely as the line continues to move east towards the middle Texas coast during the early morning hours. We’ll be up and will provide updates throughout the evening, so be sure to check back!
Latest HRRR high-resolution short-range forecast model through 8am tomorrow morning….
The latest Storm Prediction Center has also expanded the Slight Risk area a bit further east towards Victoria and also now includes part of the Austin metro area. Again, the greatest threats during the nighttime hours will be damaging wind gusts and large hail. The tornado threat is very low, but is not zero either, so don’t go to bed tonight without a way to receive weather warnings should any be issued for your area. If you rely on your cellphone for weather updates, be sure it’s not muted and with the volume turned up enough for you to hear it. We’ll have another update out in a few hours and will be monitoring this system throughout the night!