A rainy start to the week as a couple of cold fronts and a strong upper level disturbances moves across the state between now and Tuesday afternoon. The blog this morning will be kindof long as we have a good deal to talk about, but we’ll break it up into bite size portions for you!
Today and Tonight
Rain has already begun across parts of west, west central and central Texas this morning. This area of rain is expected to continue expanding eastward today staying mainly along and south of the I-20 corridor and north of the I-10 corridor. Severe weather is not expected, but we could see a few stronger storms with some gusty winds and small hail mixed in as we reach peak heating this afternoon…especially across parts of west central Texas and southern north Texas. Below, we have a simulated radar graphic of how conditions are likely to shape up between now and about midnight. Rainfall accumulations today are expected to remain generally 1/2 inch or less, but we could see isolated 1 to 2 inch accumulations, especially during the overnight hours.
Highs today will once again be above where we should be at for this time of the year. A weak cold front is pushing through western north Texas and will stall across central Texas later tonight. Lows tonight will be fairly seasonal across the panhandle and south plains, but will remain a good 10 degrees above normal for areas east and south due to higher humidity values.
Monday-Monday Night Rain Chances
The better rain chances will move into eastern and southeastern Texas on Monday along and ahead of the stalled weak cold front. Not expecting much in the way of heavy rain during this time frame, but we will begin to see an uptick of rain chances across the panhandle and west Texas by late Monday as a strong upper level disturbance approaches from the west.
Tuesday-Tuesday Night Rain/Storm Chances
As a strong upper level disturbance moves overhead by early Tuesday, we’ll see a strong surface low developing across west central Texas. This surface low will aid in dragging a strong cold front through the state on Tuesday with very gusty winds behind it. Ahead of the front, additional lift from the strong upper level disturbance will cause an increase in rain and storm chances mainly across southeast Texas where the Storm Prediction Center has placed a Marginal Risk Outlook for severe weather mid-day on Tuesday. While widespread severe weather is not expected, we could see some early to mid-day strong to severe storms develop. These would have the potential to generate localized heavy downpours, frequent lightning and gusty winds. For the panhandle, snow is possible across the far northwestern corner of the panhandle and up into the OK panhandle region early Tuesday morning where around 1-2 inches of snow accumulation is possible. The track of this surface low will be important with regard to snowfall across the panhandle. A track further south could bring the snow line further south, so this likelihood will need to monitored with the next couple of forecast model runs.
Behind the cold front on Tuesday, we will also be dealing with very gusty winds and the potential for blowing dust across the panhandle, south plains and far western Texas. After Tuesday’s system moves east, we’ll be looking at seasonal highs and lows for the middle of the week with a gradual warming trend towards the weekend. Rain chances don’t appear again in the long-range forecast until we get into next weekend, and those chances look to be pretty light at this time.