It will be several more hours before the latest round of model data rolls in, and that includes the latest Storm Prediction Center update on tomorrow’s severe weather chances. So for this evening’s blog, we’ll just focus on other conditions expected across the state overnight through tomorrow. If you missed David’s mid-day blog regarding the severe weather threat tomorrow evening and overnight into Wednesday, check it out here:https://texasstormchasers.com/2015/12/21/updated-severe-weather-outlook-for-tomorrow-night/
Let’s begin with the forecast lows for tonight and forecast highs for tomorrow. Chilly and seasonal across the panhandle and western Texas where lows will drop into the 30s and 40s overnight. Further east and south, lows will be averaging several degrees above where they should be for this point in the season. Highs tomorrow, very much above average with widespread 70s across much of the state. South Texas will be seeing shorts and flip flop weather with highs ranging from the mid 80s to low 90s by tomorrow afternoon.
The weak cold front/dryline that pushed through early today is currently stalled out northeast to southwest from around Paris to Tyler and through Waco and down into the Hill Country Region. It did a pretty good job of pushing much of the gulf moisture back down across south central Texas; however, the frontal boundary is expected to retreat back north bringing moisture back with it. As the front retreats and its moisture begins to interact with the cooler and drier air north of the boundary, we’ll likely see widespread areas of patchy dense fog form in the hours before sunrise. Areas of dense fog are also possible late tonight into early tomorrow for coastal and deep south Texas as high levels of moisture stream north across the region.
We’ll also see quite windy conditions again across parts of the southern panhandle and western Texas tomorrow afternoon with elevated fire weather conditions present once again. As always, outdoor burning is not advised and be extra careful with anything that could spark and cause a grass/brush fire.
Tomorrow evening’s Severe Weather Threat…as mentioned above, latest updates on that won’t arrive for several more hours, but at this time, it appears the dynamics will be in place for at least a few severe storms late tomorrow evening into early Wednesday mainly along and east of the I-35 corridor. A rapid return of gulf moisture plus unusually high surface temperatures by tomorrow afternoon will allow for moderate amounts of atmospheric Today’s short-range models still have most of the storm activity holding off until best forcing from the approaching upper level disturbance arrives late on Tuesday. That means most of the activity will be during the overnight hours and pushing east into Louisiana by mid-morning Wednesday. Damaging winds remain the greatest threat; however, there will be sufficient instability and wind shear in place to keep the possibility of a couple of tornadoes in the forecast. This is not a high probability, but worth mentioning nevertheless. David will have the latest updates out once the data becomes available, so be sure to check back!
Winter Weather Chances Return Next Weekend – We’ve hesitated talking too much about this because the long-range forecast models have been all over the place with regards to winter weather this coming holiday weekend. What we are seeing show up consistently is a strong upper level system dropping south into northern Mexico and up into southern Arizona and New Mexico by Saturday. What is not staying consistent is the eventual track of the system and whether it becomes cutoff or remains rather progressive and moves quickly across Texas and into the southern plains. A cold front will be arriving at about the same time which is likely to lead to at least some threat of winter weather behind it…but whether that makes it into Texas is still a bit up in the air…pun intended. At any rate, we will be watching this like a hawk and knowing that lots of folks will have travel plans this next weekend, we’ll continue to update throughout the week.