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Enhanced Risk of Severe Weather & Tornadoes This Afternoon

The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded portions of North Texas, Northwest Texas, Central Texas, and part of the Brazos Valley to an enhanced risk of severe weather. An enhanced risk is a level 3 on a 5 level system. The standard elevated risk of severe weather includes Southwest Texas, the Concho Valley, and the Big Country. A level 1 marginal risk runs from Laredo and Corpus Christi up the coast through Southeast Texas and East Texas.

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While the western sections of Texas will be dealing with a blizzard later tonight the eastern sections of the state will have to deal with severe weather. An incredibly moist environment is in place across the warm sector this morning with dewpoint values in the upper 60s to low 70s. The environment is the same as what you would expect on a early May morning. A strong low level jet out of the southeast will continue to pump copious amounts of moisture north through the day. At the same time winds in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere are screaming out of the southwest. Wind shear values are quite favorable for organized thunderstorms. There will also be considerable low-level wind shear today. With very high moisture values the atmosphere will be very unstable this afternoon and early evening. Strong wind shear, an unstable environment, and rich moisture will contribute to a severe weather threat today. A cold front will be located from Central Oklahoma southwest into Northwest Texas and the Big Country. The front itself won’t be moving south too quickly today. A squall line is possible in proximity to that front. Most activity this afternoon across the enhanced risk zone will be in the form of isolated, discrete thunderstorms. The enviornment is very supportive of supercells capable of all severe weather modes. I don’t think we’re going to see many thunderstorms this afternoon – but those that form could become tornadic.

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There is no reason to be scared or anxious of the severe weather potential today. If you’re reading this blog you more than likely keep up with the weather. Just have a severe weather safety plan and keep up with weather updates today. Have a way to receive severe weather warnings. If a tornado warning is issued for your location move to a room on the lowest floor, center of the structure, away from windows. Put on shoes, pants, and a helmet. Knowledge is power – and if you follow the safety tips then you’ll be just fine!

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David Reimer

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