Good morning and happy Sunday!  Just a quick update for everyone on the outlook for today, plus a first look at the Enhanced Risk of severe weather for late Monday into early Tuesday.  Light rain showers continue in a band stretching from west Texas into western north texas this morning.  We expect this will be the trend today with additional showers and a few isolated thundershowers to develop and traverse this region of the state today and into tonight.  For today, here’s an overview of the rain chances and a peek at the simulated radar of how things may look over the next 15 hours.  Why 15?  That’s as far out as this particular model reaches… 😀


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The severe weather threat for tomorrow is increasing.  The Storm Prediction Center upgraded the outlook to an Enhanced Risk for the period from Monday afternoon into early Tuesday.  Very strong dynamics will be in place by Monday afternoon with a strong system overhead, plenty of moisture, a crashing cold front and sufficient instability and shear to produce a chance for isolated supercell thunderstorms to develop across parts of the eastern panhandle, northwest Texas and west central Texas by Monday evening.  During the late afternoon/early evening timeframe, when the storms are more isolated, there will be a threat for a few tornadoes.  As we get into the 7 to 9pm timeframe, these storms are expected to quickly evolve into a squall line of strong storms along the leading edge of the cold front and blast east across the northern half of the state and towards the I-35 corridor within the midnight to 2am timeframe.  Greatest threats with this line of storms will be the potential for very strong winds and damaging hail.  Crazy as I may be, I’ll be chasing this Monday evening, but David will be manning the weather desk and will provide updates for everyone throughout the night.