It doesn’t take many years of living in Texas to figure out what a mixed bag of weather we’re subjected to throughout the year.  It’s like one of those mystery blind bags you get at parties…it feels like you never know what you’re going to get from week to week.  That’s what we’re going to discuss in this evening’s blog because this weekend and into the early part of next week is shaping up to be very busy with all types of weather expected across the state.  We’ll see widespread rain, a chance for severe weather, a strong cold front and the chance the first snow this season!  To make things easier, I’ll break the blog up into sections and discuss each topic one at a time.

The Rain Chances

Potent Storm System Next Week

Another powerful storm system is expected to drop down across the Rockies and into the southwestern US by early Monday.  Ahead of and in conjunction with this potent system, pacific moisture and increasing lift will be sweeping across the state from the southwest bringing chances of light rain into the state as early as Saturday with more widespread rain expected to develop by Sunday into early Monday.  Rainfall amounts over the weekend are expected to be relatively light, and not everyone will see rain.   The rain will begin early Saturday across the southwestern half of the state and move northeast into parts of central Texas by mid-day.  At least that’s how it looks right now.  As we get into Sunday, the approaching storm system will further aid in generating lift and storms that will further tap into the pacific moisture already in place.  At the same time, a surface high will be moving east away from the state which will kick surface winds around from the south to draw additional moisture up from the gulf.  This will generate much more widespread rain from west to east across the state through Sunday into early Monday.

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The Severe Weather Outlook

While the threat for severe weather looks to be pretty much nonexistent over the weekend, by Monday, we’ll be looking at a chance for strong to severe storms across parts of west central, central and eastern Texas during the afternoon and evenings.  Tuesday, we may see that threat continue into the far eastern/southeastern region of the state dependent upon how fast the system moves and what impact a dryline will have as it sets up across west central Texas just ahead of the next cold front.  As always, a lot will depend on timing of the system and how much instability is expected to be in place as the best forcing for lift arrives with the upper level system.  Right now, the long-range models are showing sufficient instability will be in place by Monday afternoon and again on Tuesday to issue a preliminary outlook.  This is in no way a guarantee that we’ll see severe weather…especially when looking at a forecast that is still quite a number of days out.  We look at these SPC outlooks as more of a heads-up that conditions will likely have the capability to produce strong storms and we’ll need to keep an eye on this in the days to come. Regardless of whether or not the severe weather materialized, heavy rain will be likely and flooding may return as an issue again across central and eastern Texas.

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The Cold Front and…Snow???

Along with the possible threat of severe weather Monday and Tuesday, we’ll have additional widespread rain chances and a strong cold front sweeping in as the upper level system moves over us.  A surface low looks to setup over northern Oklahoma which may act to draw moisture from the rain out ahead up and over and around into the panhandle region by early Tuesday.  With temperatures expected to be at or near freezing by that time, it’s possible you folks will see your first snow of the season!  With temps so warm in the days ahead, the ground will still be much too warm to see much accumulation with any snow that does manage to develop.  Again, still too far out to be certain about snow…and because we know you’ll ask…there will NOT be any threat of snow for the Dallas/Ft. Worth area…but we’ll be monitoring this and everything else over the weekend, so be sure to check back each day!

Cold front sweeps thru early Tues

Panhandle snow Tues - Wed