Already seeing some showers on radar across across north Texas, and a skinny squall line in the far northern panhandle on the leading edge of our next cold front. Rain chances will be on the increase overnight and into tomorrow across southwest Texas, the Hill Country region, central and north central Texas as an upper level disturbance draws closer. At the same time, a squall line of storms is expected to continue development along the leading edge of the cold front tonight as it works it’s way southeast and into north Texas before noon tomorrow. While this system will be much faster moving than our last system, and we won’t be seeing the 10 to 20 inch amounts we saw last weekend, there is still a threat for flooding due to saturated soil across the areas south of the DFW metroplex which saw the most rain from our last two systems. The 2 to 4 inch rainfall projections from this system will likely overload these areas, hence the widespread flash flood watches in effect beginning this evening and lasting through Thursday morning across the Hill Country region, and through Friday night for central and north central Texas. Definitely keep an eye on the typical hotspots for flooding as you’re out and about tomorrow.
In addition to the threat of additional flooding, we will also see a threat of severe weather. Chances for thunderstorms will arrive by early tomorrow as stronger forcing arrives from an upper level disturbance. A few strong to severe storms embedded in a widespread band of rain stretched from the DFW metroplex down into southwest Texas is likely. The main threat with these will be gusty winds, hail up to 1 inch and heavy rain under some of the more intense cells. Stronger storms, some possibly severe, will also be likely within a squall line approaching from the west along the leading edge of the cold front. Eventually, the squall line will catch up to and possibly merge with the existing band of showers and storms creating a long line of storms stretched from northeast and north central Texas all the way southwest into the Hill Country. This line will then continue to work its way southeast across the state tomorrow evening and into the overnight hours. Here’s how the radar might look like at different times throughout the day tomorrow….
How things evolve tomorrow morning could have a significant impact on how likely we are to see severe storms and what the likelihood will be for tornadoes. The threat right now is low as current thinking has most of north Texas influenced by the stabilizing effects of the early day precipitation and cloud cover which cools the surface layer and doesn’t provide for much of the warm and humid inflow that strong storms require to maintain themselves and gain strength. However, if the front slows and stays further west from the influence of morning storms, or we get any breaks in the clouds to allow additional surface heating, we could see more numerous coverage of severe storms along the frontal boundary and an increased threat in tornado development. We’ll know more in the morning after the latest model data is analyzed so be sure to check back!
A little peek at the nice weekend ahead! Once the cold front moves through, it will scour out the humidity and bring wonderful fall-like conditions back to the state for the weekend. By Saturday, we’ll be looking at highs that are We’ll also see some of the coldest readings since last April across parts of north Texas by Saturday night as temps drop down into the 40s…and down into the 30s across the panhandle!