Little in the of changes are needed this morning for the upcoming severe weather forecast. The High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) continues to show the first storms developing around 3-4 PM in the Texas Panhandle near I-27. Those storms would move east/northeast at 40 MPH. Some of these storms will be discrete supercells with a tornado risk. The tornado risk is highest across the eastern Texas Panhandle into Northwest Texas and adjacent portions of Western Oklahoma. As upper level forcing increases we’ll see a line of storms fire up early evening in the eastern Panhandle and West Texas. That line of storms will move east at about 40 MPH into Northwest Texas, the Big Country, and the Concho Valley by midnight. Current projections have the line moving into the D/FW Metroplex and Interstate 35 corridor between 2 and 4 AM. Damaging wind gusts are possible with the strongest sections of the line. Brief tornadoes are also possible but the tornado risk will be much lower compared to the discrete cells earlier in the day.
An enhanced severe weather risk is in place beginning this afternoon across the eastern Texas Panhandle. The enhanced risk zone extends into Northwest Texas where the risk will begin after sunset. The overall severe weather risk will increase tonight as the squall line moves east into an unstable environment. Wind shear values will be very impressive and will help maintain the squall line. Damaging wind gusts up to 75 MPH will be possible with the squall line – although most gusts will be in the 45-65 MPH range. Embedded brief spinup tornadoes are possible.