Rain and storm chances will continue across western Texas overnight and into Thursday before the weather begins to ease up by the weekend. By Friday, the upper level disturbance which has been causing some atmospheric mischief out west for the past several days will begin to retreat back to the west towards the Baja coast taking the rain chances with it.
The severe weather threat will begin diminishing this evening as we begin to lose daytime heating, although some amount of rain and thunder will continue through the overnight hours. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect across much of this region until 9pm tonight, and a Flash Flood Watch remains in effect through tomorrow evening.
Tomorrow, much the same as today, but with the greatest severe weather threat shifting a bit east into the Big Bend Region by tomorrow afternoon where the Storm Prediction Center has placed a Marginal Risk of severe weather. We’ll also see chances of scattered non-severe showers and storms a bit further east into central Texas as a combination of the upper level disturbance, increasing surface moisture and daytime heating kick off some afternoon convection.
Lows tonight will range from the upper 50s out west to the mid 70s along the southern coast. These temps are generally a few degrees above where we should be at this time of the year as we generally see lows in the 50s and 60s state-wide by this time.
Highs tomorrow, cooler out west under the influence of residual cloud cover and rain, but warming into the upper 80s and low 90s for those not seeing rain. Average highs should be in the mid 70s to mid 80s, so once again, we’ll be several degrees above.
On Friday, the upper level low will begin to shift back to the west, thus rain chances will begin to significantly decrease across the western half of the state. A weak cold front will approach the state by late Thursday/early Friday and is expected to stall out somewhere near the I-20 corridor by early Saturday morning. The chance for rain across drought-parched north central Texas late Thursday into Friday will be tied to the cold front as it sags south across the region, but even those chances are pretty slim. The remainder of the forecast for the next 7 to 10 days after this looks mostly dry and warmer than average, so we’ll likely have to wait until we get further into the fall season before we see any significant uptick in rain chances, or much in the way of lasting cooler weather.