Strong to severe storms are possible overnight and Tuesday across parts of far west Texas in and around the El Paso region. Widespread severe is not expected, but a few of the storms that form across northern Mexico and cross the border overnight into western Texas and the New Mexico boot heel could become strong with large hail, strong winds, heavy downpours and frequent lightning…especially during the early morning hours tomorrow.
Elsewhere, a quiet night is expected with mild overnight lows ranging from the low 50s across the panhandle, to low 60s and upper 70s further south along the coast. Highs tomorrow, warming up a few degrees over what we saw this weekend. A few areas will be pushing 90 degrees, but western Texas and the panhandle will stay cooler as temperatures will be highly influenced by the amount of cloud cover expected tomorrow as our next upper level disturbance gets closer.
Rain chances this week are increasing across the western and southwestern regions of the state. The approaching upper level low is dragging pacific moisture with it…and the low itself will begin to draw moisture up from the Gulf of Mexico once it begins to move closer to us by mid-week. This will set the state for a multi-day rain event across the area with some folks seeing 2-4 inches of rain once the system moves out next weekend. Minor flooding is certainly a possibility…especially for the urban areas along the I-35 corridor. This is not…NOT…shaping up to be a high-impact flooding event like we saw this spring when the ground was already in an oversaturated state. But, we certainly could see some localized flooding of small streams, creeks, and some urban streets under some of the heavier downpours that develop. We will keep an eye on this situation anyway, as the speed and eventual position of the upper level low will determine the who/what/when evolution of this next rain event.
David posted a comprehensive outlook around lunchtime today. If you missed it…check it out here: https://texasstormchasers.com/2015/10/05/upper-level-low-to-bring-widespread-rain-chances-wednesday-friday/