Changes are on the way as an upper level low helps bring widespread precipitation chances later this week. Morning observations showed an upper-level low pressure located over southern California. This low pressure is going to slowly progress east on Tuesday. By Wednesday the low will be located in southwest New Mexico. The low won’t move much on Thursday but will edge closer to extreme West Texas. After Thursday the low is forecast to retrograde back west on Friday and into the weekend. The progress of the low will be important in determining how far east precipitation chances extend in Texas.

Upper Level Low Today

Upper Level Low Today

Upper Level Low forecast position on Wednesday

Upper Level Low forecast position on Wednesday

Upper Level Low position on Thursday

Upper Level Low position on Thursday

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Texas Panhandle, West Texas, the Permian Basin, and far West Texas on Wednesday. Those chances for rain spread east into the Big Country and Concho Valley on Wednesday Night. Rain chances spread east into Northwest Texas, North Texas, Central Texas, the Hill Country, South-Central Texas, Deep South Texas, and the Rio Grande Valley on Thursday and Thursday Night. The Panhandle will start to dry out on Friday but rain chances continue elsewhere. Northeast Texas, East Texas, and Southeast Texas very well may receive some rain – but the current forecast has those locations receiving the least amount of rain with this event.

The current forecast shows the highest rain chances across West Texas, the Permian Basin, and the Hill Country. Rain totals quickly diminish along and east of Interstate 35. Should the low end up remaining farther west then the heaviest rain totals will also move west. An eastward trend in the low would result in heavier rain totals extending into Texas. Localized flooding is a possibility in the Permian Basin and Big Country based on the current forecast. Flash Flood Watches may be issued as we get closer to the event.

Forecast rain accumulation through Saturday from the Weather Prediction Center

Forecast rain accumulation through Saturday from the Weather Prediction Center