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We’ve seen a lull in precipitation across Far West Texas this morning. The atmosphere is recharging with breaks in the clouds around El Paso and across Far West Texas. Compared to Tuesday I do expect a bit more of a severe weather threat today. An upper level low sitting across southeast Arizona has placed Far West Texas in a favorable quadrant with 40 to 45 MPH winds in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere. Combined with the increasing instablity values the stage is set for a few severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.

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A category 2 severe weather risk is in place across Far West Texas. This zone includes El Paso, Dell City, Van Horn, and Pecos. Wind fields will support organized thunderstorms including supercells. Weak low-level winds will keep the tornado threat very low. The strongest storms may produce large hail and damaging wind gusts.

High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model run with simulated radar today. Times are in Eastern in the top-right part of the graphic.

High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model run with simulated radar today. Times are in Eastern in the top-right part of the graphic.

The High Resolution Rapid Refresh run from 9 AM CT shows an increase in thunderstorm activity across Far West Texas and the Permian Basin this afternoon. By early evening activity across eastern New Mexico should begin spreading into the Texas Panhandle. Activity may actually increase further across Far West Texas tonight with a threat of heavy rain and flooding.

Forecast rain totals through Thursday Night from the Weather Prediction Center

Forecast rain totals through Thursday Night from the Weather Prediction Center

The Weather Prediction Center continues to forecast 1 to 3 inches of rain through Thursday Night across the Permian Basin and Far West Texas. Localized rain totals up to 4 inches will be possible. Flash Flood watches have been issued for those areas for the threat of flooding. With the upper level low sitting across Arizona the forecast now keeps nearly all rain west of Interstate 35 (except in South Texas).