We’re beginning to see an uptick in thunderstorm coverage across parts of the Concho Valley into the Hill Country this evening. In addition a complex of thunderstorms is impacting northern Mexico. That cluster is moving east and will move into Eagle Pass and across the International Border over the coming hours. Some of the ongoing storms are severe with damaging wind gusts over 70 MPH. The severe weather threat looks to continue overnight across Central Texas, South-Central Texas, and eventually Southeast Texas. The strongest storms will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts over 70 MPH and a couple of tornadoes.

Overnight severe weahter outlook

Overnight severe weahter outlook

Flash flooding will continue to be a concern. Storms overnight may dump 1 to 2 inches of rain per hour in some locations. Eventually we’ll storms across the Hill Country congeal into a cluster of squall line. That area of convection will move east into the Interstate 35 corridor after 1 AM from D/FW south through Austin and San Antonio. We’ll have to watch for additional flash flooding and a localized severe weather threat. Wind shear values are very strong so we’ll have to watch closely for rotating thunderstorms.

Here is a simulated radar projection from the hourly HRRR weather model run. Don’t expect the radar to look exactly like what this model prints out but it does give a good general idea. Hopefully we can keep storms moving without any training. We’ll have another update a bit later as evening weather model data arrives and we monitor trends. It is looking like a busy overnight period for North Texas, Central Texas, South-Central Texas, and the Hill Country.

hrrr_2015103100_ref_texas

Additional rainfall expected overnight. Don't pay too much attention to exact locations of heavier rain bands - just know we're expecting them.

Additional rainfall expected overnight. Don’t pay too much attention to exact locations of heavier rain bands – just know we’re expecting them.