We’ve been getting a lot of questions about the timing of impacts from the rainfall and any severe weather associated with this rain system. Below is a set of graphics that, for the most part, we feel will represent the conditions at the stated times. No one model has been 100% accurate so far with this system, but this one…the TTU WRF short range model…seems to have the best grasp at current conditions and will likely have a decent grasp of conditions over the next 24 hours. For tonight and into tomorrow morning, heavy rain with embedded thunderstorms will impact the panhandle and the northern trans pecos region. Severe storms ongoing and overnight will be focused along the southern end of this current batch of rain…mainly northeast of Pecos, up into far southeastern New Mexico and western rolling plains over the next several hours. Additional rainfall of 2+ inches is likely and flash flooding issues by early tomorrow are almost certain across much of the panhandle, rolling plains and northern Permian Basin region.
Tomorrow morning, the large area of rain and storms will continue to slowly move east. We’ll also see a large area of scattered showers and storms moving north from the central gulf coast region into central Texas. With all, heavy rain can be expected on and off all morning with some areas picking up an additional 1 to 2+ inches of rainfall before we get into the afternoon hours.
Tomorrow afternoon, widespread ongoing rain from the morning will likely keep a lid on some of the instability across the area. However, we could see some strong to severe storm development across central Texas and western north Texas as the upper level disturbance closes in on the state. Not shown on this graphic, but the panhandle region is likely to be impacted by yet another swath of rain and storms by late Thursday into early Friday as the upper level disturbance begins to lift off to the northeast.
Another concern has been the rash of graphics we’ve seen posted today on various social media platforms depicting the possibility of a foot or more of rain across the Dallas/Ft. Worth metroplex Friday through Saturday. There’s still some uncertainty over how much rain will fall across north central Texas during that timeframe, but it’s highly unlikely that over a foot of rain will impact the entire area. Current forecast is for 2 to 5 inches with some isolated higher amounts depending on where the heaviest storms set up. Training of storms over the same area may lead to a swath of precip amounts in excess of the currently forecasted 2 to 5 inches, but at this point, it’s impossible to forecast exactly where that will happen. Severe weather across north central Texas Friday and Saturday is low overall, so for this region of the state, we’re looking at more of a rain event rather than a severe weather event.