After a couple days of pleasant weather we’ll be heading back into an active pattern for the end of the work week. i know Saturday evening is of particular interest since it is Halloween. We’ll do our best to help answer your questions but keep in mind we’re still several days away and the forecast will likely change. With all that said lets take a look at the overall timing of the storm system. The good news is its going to be a mover and that should help prevent the stationary bands of very heavy rain we saw last week. Likewise the rich tropical moisture out in the Gulf of Mexico isn’t going to have much time to advect back inland either. Current projections show most of the moisture making a mad dash back inland via the low level jet during the day on Thursday and into Thursday Night. That means while moisture will increase it won’t nearly the same high quality as what was in place this past weekend.
Like this past event the upcoming rain looks like a nearly statewide event for Texas. That means it looks like over 90 percent of Texas should receive some rain over the next five days. The amounts of duration of the rain will vary drastically over different regions. The Weahter Prediction Center (WPC) has forecast rain totals through Sunday evening of 0.5 to 1.5 inches in the Rio Grande Valley, Texas Panhandle, West Texas, Permian Basin, and Far West Texas. For locations in the Big Country, Concho Valley, Hill Country, North Texas, Northeast Texas, Central Texas, South-Central Texas, and Southeast Texas we’re expecting rain totals in the 1 to 3 inch range. Locally higher amounts up to 4 inches will be possible in those areas. Soils remain saturated after heavy rains this past weekend. Localized flash flooding will be possible but at this time. Localized and isolated severe thunderstorms may occur on Friday but again that’s a threat we’ll have to diagnose closer to the event.
I’ll leave you with the rain forecast graphics produced by the National Weather Service. A high chance of rain doesn’t mean it will rain throughout that period nor does it necessarily mean plans will be a washout.