A band of heavy to very heavy rain extends from near Lampasas northeast to West, Corsicana, and to a lesser extent Athens And Tyler. A Flash Flood Emergency is in effect for Navarro county due to 8″+ of rain that has fallen in a few hours. Flash flooding is ongoing pretty much along the entire band of rain. As we feared earlier this band has stalled out and is now ‘training’ over the same areas. The result is some locations are receiving 2-3 inches of rain per hour. This is going to continue for a few more hours before the band hopefully finally weakens – however some locations, such as Corsicana, could easily pick up a foot of rain by this evening.
Additional thunderstorms are developing in the Big Country and Concho Valley. These storms are moving northeast and will impact North Texas, including the D/FW Metroplex, later this evening and overnight. We anticipate this round of heavy rain will create flooding problems and drop several inches of rain. The High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) weather model seems to show this scenario. I doubt the radar will set up exactly like what the HRRR shows later on but someone is going to have issues with flooding – be ready.
The HRRR weather model accumulated precip through late tonight shows the spotty nature of the heavy rain. Again I don’t think the HRRR has it exactly right but it shows a good example of the hit or miss scenario we’ll be dealing with overnight. As a whole the flash flood risk is increasing with the potential for locally significant/dangerous flooding this evening and overnight across North Texas, Central Texas, and South Texas. We’ll have another detailed update around or just after 5 PM with the latest rain projections overnight.