While it’s been relatively quiet so far on the radar across the hill country and down into south Texas and along the coast this evening, don’t think for one minute that this rain is not going to come. It will…and by the gallons if current forecast models are not overdoing their precipitation algorithms. An upper level low will be approaching from the west, a cold front will be dropping south into the state, copious amounts of gulf moisture already in place, and on top of all that, increasing moisture from what’s left of Hurricane Patricia will be feeding into the region enhancing a surface low which will develop over south Texas. Basically, a perfect recipe for a widespread rain and flood event. Flood watches are already in place across the entire central and south Texas region…save for a few counties along the Rio Grande in deep south Texas…all in anticipation of widespread flash flooding as rain begins to increase over the region later tonight, and we begin to see runoff into local rivers and streams from the massive amounts of rainfall received today just north of the region.
Later tonight and into tomorrow morning, we’ll see rainfall coverage and intensity increasing considerably across central and south central Texas. By tomorrow afternoon, the cold front should be impinging upon central Texas and our surface low should be developing across south Texas. Rainfall projections for the Hill Country region range from 3-5 inches across areas west of Austin/San Antonio with 5-10 inch amounts possible for Austin and surrounding towns. Along the coastal bend, Corpus could see rainfall totals from 5 to 10 inches, with some areas to the northeast between Matagorda Bay and Houston/Galveston seeing 10 to 15 inches in some areas. Not everyone will see those amounts, but it’s highly likely that widespread rainfall in excess of 6 inches is possible by Saturday evening and into Sunday…especially for the counties right along the coast.
Here’s a look at the latest radar forecast graphics from the North American Model (short range) which will help depict the rainfall pattern possible through early Sunday afternoon. As always, just use these as guidance and don’t get too focused on exactly where it appears the most amount of rain will fall. There will be variances tomorrow, but this will give you a decent idea of what to expect. We’ll be here tonight covering whatever develops overnight, so be sure to check back with us!