I figured since most of our forecasters around the state are mentioning the possibility of a nice cold front this weekend, we’d better start flapping our jaws about it as well! Yes…we do have the POSSIBILITY of our first strong cold front of the season arriving this weekend. But before we get on the sweater weather bandwagon, we need let you know that forecasting something 5 to 7 days out is about as accurate as forecasting with a Magic 8 Ball. Even the nice folks at the NWS Lubbock office state that in their forecast discussion from earlier this afternoon:
BEYOND FRIDAY MODELS DIVERGE ON THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WHICH SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTS WHETHER WE WILL BE COOL…WARM…WET…OR DRY. I TRIED TO USE MY MAGIC EIGHT BALL TO COME UP WITH THE FORECAST BUT EVEN IT SAID TRY AGAIN LATER.
As of now, it appears this cooler air will arrive across Texas in stages. The first rather weak front is expected to arrive mid-week with its most prominent feature being a decrease in humidity levels from east to west like we saw this past weekend. So in a nutshell…still warmer than we really should be at this time of the year, but less muggy.
Now we get to the Magic 8 Ball part of the forecast. For the most part, forecasters use a blend of the three main long-range computer model forecasts when talking about conditions expected more than just a few days out. In the case of the possible cold front this weekend, we have only one model that’s dropping a strong front into the state late Saturday into early Sunday…the GFS model, while the other two models, the European and Canadian, are holding out for the middle of next week before pushing much cooler air all the way into Texas. The timing of the front will be strongly influenced by an upper level low which isn’t even being measured in our balloon network yet, so only time will tell whether it arrives faster like the GFS is currently forecasting, or slower like the European and Canadian models are forecasting. Most of the forecasters across the state are sticking with a high level of uncertainty with how things will evolve this weekend, but a few are leaning towards the GFS due to its recent accuracy with other recent weather features. All that to say, it’s too soon to know for sure, but we’ll be watching this closely during the week, so be sure to check back for updates!