Hurricane Joaquin organized quickly overnight with a significant pressure drop and increase in surface winds. Data from a hurricane hunter aircraft investigating Joaquin found it has become a hurricane and continues to become better organized this morning. Environmental conditions are quite favorable for further intensification and Joaquin could become a Major Hurricane with sustained winds over 115 MPH over the next couple of days.

Joaquin will meander around the eastern Bahamas through Friday Morning before beginning to move north. Overnight weather model data and continued guidance this morning is showing a troubling trend. Instead of the hurricane making the typical move out to sea it could actually turn northwest. Based on the current forecast track it appears Hurricane Joaquin will be near the southern New Jersey Coast early on Monday. The cone of uncertainty runs all the way from the outer banks of North Carolina to Rhode Island. Its important not to focus on the ‘centerline’ of the track as significant uncertainty remains in the forecast. Regardless this storm could pose the most significant threat to the Northeast United States since Hurricane Sandy back in 2012.

Those of you located in the Mid-Atlantic, Northeast United States, and the eastern seaboard of the United States need to closely monitor the forecasts. Dangerous surf conditions will occur along the entire coast of the eastern United States this week.

2015-09-30_9-55-27

BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOAQUIN ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
1100 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2015

…JOAQUIN STRENGTHENS SOME MORE AS IT MOVES SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS…

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…24.7N 72.6W
ABOUT 215 MI…345 KM ENE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…80 MPH…130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…SW OR 230 DEGREES AT 6 MPH…9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…971 MB…28.68 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Central Bahamas including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island,
Rum Cay, and San Salvador.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Northwestern Bahamas including the Abacos, Berry Islands, Bimini,
Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence, but excluding
Andros Island

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Joaquin was
located near latitude 24.7 North, longitude 72.6 West. Joaquin is
moving toward the southwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A general motion
toward the west-southwest or southwest is expected to continue
through tonight. A turn toward the northwest and a decrease in
forward speed are forecast Thursday or Thursday night. The center
of Joaquin is expected to move near or over portions of the central
Bahamas tonight and Thursday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane aircraft indicate that
maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected, and
Joaquin could become a major hurricane during the next couple of
days.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft data is 971 mb (28.67 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach portions of the
Central Bahamas by Thursday morning. Winds are expected to first
reach tropical storm strength in the warning area tonight, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical
storm conditions are possible in the southeastern Bahamas beginning
tonight. Hurricane conditions could reach the northwestern Bahamas
early on Friday.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore flow. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by
large and dangerous waves.

RAINFALL: Joaquin is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain
over much of the central Bahamas, with isolated maximum amounts of
20 inches possible over San Salvador and Rum Cay through Friday
night. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches are possible over the
southeastern Bahamas through Friday night, with 2 to 4 inches
expected over the northwestern Bahamas.

SURF: Swells generated by Joaquin will affect portions of the
Bahamas during the next few days, and will begin to affect portions
of the southeastern coast of the United States by Thursday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.