Meteorological fall began on the first of September and I’m pleased to say Mother Nature is going to act a bit like it later this week. After being in a zonal/dull weather pattern the jetstream is going to start dipping back south into the Northern Plains and Eastern United States. We’ll be on the edge of it all but a northwest flow aloft will set up. That northwest flow is going to push a cold front into Texas beginning on Tuesday Night/Wednesday. It will continue to push south over the coming days into more of Texas. A more continental airmass will follow in behind the front helping to push the sticky tropical air mass back a bit.
The Climate Prediction Center highlights the pattern change well in their 6 to 10 day outlook. While this outlook is actually for next weekend it does appear that we will stay in a relatively active weather pattern as we head into the middle of September. Some of the weather models bring a second cold front into Texas towards next weekend. As our first cold front pushes south on Wednesday and Thursday we should see scattered thunderstorms develop in proximity to it. Some folks may pick up an inch of rain but I don’t think we’ll see a big soaker for our mid-week system. A few weather models do indicate a more rainy setup for the end of the week but confidence is quite low in any particular solution. Weather models are all over the place with their solutions so forecast adjustments are certainly probable.
The GFS Weather Model highlights the upcoming pattern change well in the temperature forecasts. Don’t take them too literally since they do come straight from one weather model. They do show that we will be heading towards a more temperate climate with a wet pattern also developing. I don’t dare to say we’re done with the summer weather but after three months of quiet weather at least we have something to talk about.