Temperatures across the Texas Panhandle and higher elevations in West and Southwest Texas have fallen into the 50s overnight. With skies trying to clear out some locations may experience fog this morning with wet ground from yesterday’s rain. Any fog that develops will burn off by mid-morning. Y’all across South Texas and Southeast Texas are warmer this morning with temperatures in the 70s along with much more humid air. A few showers are impacting the barrier islands in Deep South Texas with a larger cluster of activity about 35 miles offshore.
Looking up at about 18,500 feet above the surface our state remains locked between a high pressure across the Southwest United States. An upper level low pressure is on the Alabama/Georgia border. That low is one big reason why a supercell produced a damaging tornado just outside of Charleston, South Carolina late last night. For our state we’re experiencing a light northerly flow aloft. As we head into the weekend an area of lower pressure may develop in the Gulf of Mexico which would help make conditions more tropical across Texas.
In combination with tropical air now back onshore we’ll see rain chances increase today across the coast and in Deep South Texas. A 20 percent chance of showers will exist this afternoon generally from Austin east to Lufkin and points south including Houston and Beaumont. Those rain chances ramp up to 30-40 percent for Victoria, Corpus Christi, and Brownsville. Severe weather is not expected with any of the activity today. The chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms (20-30 percent) will continue tonight along and south of Interstate 10.
With the tropical air mass back on shore and no signs of a cool off in the next week the annoyingly warm summer conditions will continue. With October now only days away we’re officially dealing with unseasonably warm temperatures across Texas. The only folks actually getting to enjoy temperatures slightly more acceptable for fall are those in the Texas Panhandle south into the higher elevations of the Davis and Alpine mountains. High temperatures today will be in the 80s across the Panhandle, West Texas, and the Permian Basin into Far West Texas. Folks in the remainder of Texas, including all of the major metropolitan areas, will top out in the low 90s this afternoon.
For tonight those lucky enough in and around Alpine, Texas will enjoy temperatures in the upper 40s to low 50s. Get off the higher elevations and by the time you get to Fort STockton temperatures will be back into the 60s. For Texas as a whole temperatures will range from the upper 50s in West Texas up to about 72 degrees along the coast and in the Rio Grande Valley. The D/FW Metroplex, Austin, San Antonio, and Houston will drop down into the upper 60s to right around 70 degrees overnight.
A broad area of low pressure is expected to develop in the southern and central parts of the Gulf of Mexico towards Sunday and early next week. At this time the National Hurricane Center gives it a low probability of becoming a tropical depression within the next five days. Some of the weather models do develop it into a weak tropical system. Even if the system is able to develop it is likely that steering current aloft would keep the storm east of Texas. Regardless of any tropical development moisture from the low pressure will cause an increase in rain/storm chances along the Southeast Texas coast towards the end of this weekend and into next week. We’ll keep tabs on this system over the weekend even though it should not result in any major impacts to our weather.