Good Wednesday morning and congratulations on making it through September. In case you haven’t look at a Calendar today is the last day of September. The month went by so quickly and was fairly quiet weather-wise with above-average temperatures. October will start out hot and humid but a cold front will bring changes by Friday. After starting out the week with active weather in Southeast Texas we’ll enjoy a quiet weather day. High temperatures will be above average to end September with upper 90s across South Texas. I’ll personally be pretty annoyed if someone hits 100 degrees in South Texas today because I WANT FALL WEATHER! Anyway the Hill Country, Central Texas, Southeast Texas, East Texas, North Texas, Northwest Texas, the Big Country, Concho Valley, and the Hill Country will all top out in the upper 80s to mid 90s today. West Texas, the Texas Panhandle, and the Permian Basin will be in the 80s today.
For tonight low temperatures will be warm across the state with lower 70s in the Rio Grande Valley, South Texas, and along the coast. Upper 60s will be the name of the game for Southeast Texas, Central Texas, and Southwest Texas. Mid 60s will be common tonight across Northwest Texas, North Texas, into the Concho Valley. Upper 50s to Low 60s will be the winners of tonight’s fall game across the Panhandle, West Texas, Permian Basin, Big Country, and Northeast Texas.
Changes begin to arrive on Thursday as a northerly flow helps usher in much drier air into the northern parts of Texas. High temperatures will be in the 70s across hte Texas Panhandle and only the lower 80s across Texoma, through the D/FW Metroplex, and into Northeast Texas. By Friday temperatures will be noticeably more comfortable across the Texas Panhandle, West Texas, North Texas, Central Texas, Northeast Texas, East Texas, and Southeast Texas. Even across South Texas where temperatures will still be hot dewpoint values will drop into the 40s and 50s. These may not be true fall temperatures but say goodbye to the humidity for a few days. Low temperatures will be comfortable across most of Texas thanks to the lower dewpoint temperatures. Another cold front may push south into parts of Texas on Saturday but that scenario remains uncertain.
Meanwhile Tropical Storm Joaquin is located about 240 miles east of the Central Bahamas this morning. Maximum sustained winds of 70 MPH were indicated in the 4 AM CDT advisory. However the Hurricane Hunters arrived about 30 minutes ago and have found a significantly more organized system. I expect a special advisory will be issued to bring Joaquin up to Hurricane status around 7 AM. Based on the pressure drop noted it is possible an episode of rapid intensification has occurred overnight. Weather model guidance is all over the map with the potential track of this system. However is may pose a direct threat to the eastern seaboard of the United States and possibly the Mid-Atlantic. If you’re heading out that way or have family/friends let them know to keep a very close eye on forecast updates. At this time it looks like a Sunday-Tuesday timeframe if the system was to make landfall.