2015-08-27_4-37-34

Temperatures will top out at or a few degrees above average this afternoon across Texas with 93 to 102 degrees expected. Heat index values may be a tad warmer in the more humid environments. The Alpine Mountains will be in the 80s to around 90 degrees.

Chance of rain/storms Today

Chance of rain/storms Today

Chance of rain/storms Tonight

Chance of rain/storms Tonight

The only storm chances today and tonight will be across the northwestern half of the Texas Panhandle. We’ll be watching for storms to fire up in New Mexico and north of the region. Those storms could move east/southeast into portions of the Texas Panhandle tonight. Severe weather is not expected.

2015-08-27_4-39-10

For tonight temperatures will fall back down to or a few degrees below seasonal averages with 63 to 75 degrees. Folks across East and Southeast Teas will actually be relatively cool tonight with temperatures falling back into the mid and upper 60s. THe warmest spots will be the Concho Valley into Northwest Teas with mid 70s.

084828W5_NL_sm

Tropical Storm Erika strengthened a bit overnight and is located near Guadeloupe. The system continues to book it west and we should see it turn northwest later today with a quick forward speed. Erika is going to have to deal with unfavorable wind shear and terrain issues over the next day or two. I don’t anticipate a whole lot of strengthening until the weekend. There remains a chance Erika will get sheared apart – but that probability is diminishing after it actually organized overnight compared to weakening. The National Hurricane Center has Erika as a hurricane just east if Miami by late Sunday Night and east of Daytona Beach by late Monday night moving north. Assuming it begins a turn to the northeast around that point it could become a significant threat to the Carolinas. It should be noted that if Erika can survive the next two days it will be moving into an environment quite favorable for intensification. Those along the Atlantic side of Florida along with the Carolinas need to monitor this system closely.