Tropical Storm Erika has formed about 955 miles east of the Leeward Islands in the Central Atlantic Ocean. This system is moving west quickly at 20 MPH and strengthening is anticipated over the coming days. The current forecast from the National Hurricane Center takes Erika towards Puerto Rico and north of the Dominican Republic by Friday. The long-range forecast has Erika approaching the Bahamas to near Cuba on Saturday as a strong tropical storm, just under hurricane strength. Conditions aren’t overly favorable for strengthening but we’ll have to keep a close eye on this system over the coming days. I’m not worried about a Texas impact at this time.

TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
1100 PM AST MON AUG 24 2015

…TROPICAL STORM FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC…

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST…0300 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…14.4N 47.7W
ABOUT 955 MI…1535 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH…75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 275 DEGREES AT 20 MPH…31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1003 MB…29.62 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of
Erika. Watches may be required for a portion of the Leeward
Islands early Tuesday.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was
located near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 47.7 West. Erika is
moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h). A westward to
west-northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is
expected during the next couple of days.

Buoy observations and satellite wind data indicate that the maximum
sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some
strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center. Earlier this evening, NOAA buoy 41041 reported
sustained winds of 45 mph with a gust to 51 mph.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the NOAA
buoy is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).