The next two days will feature active weather including the possibility of severe thunderstorms. With tomorrow being July 4th we definitely will concentrate on giving the best forecast for those planning to be outdoors. Remember that all thunderstorms produce dangerous and potentially deadly cloud to ground lightning. When thunder roars go indoors – meaning get off the lakes or outdoor areas and into a structure or your vehicle.
Scattered thunderstorms (20-40% coverage) will be possible today across the Texas Panhandle, West Texas, Northwest Texas, and North Texas. Numerous thunderstorms (50%+ coverage) are possible today across Northeast Texas. Isolated showers and thunderstorms (10-20% coverage) will be possible along all of the Texas coastline, East Texas, and Southeast Texas thanks to the seabreeze and usual afternoon dynamics. The strongest popup afternoon thunderstorm could produce locally significant microburst winds.
A more organized severe weather threat is possible across North and Northeast Texas this afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a Level 2 risk out of a 1 to 5 scale system. A level 1 risk extends from the Texas Panhandle through Northwest Texas and East Texas. The main concern with the most organized storms this afternoon will be damaging straight-line winds up to 70 MPH, hail up to the size of quarters, and very frequent cloud to ground lightning. There is a nonzero tornado risk – meaning the risk for tornadoes is very low, but not zero, today. Thunderstorms will tend to decrease in intensity after sunset but we could see storms continue into the nighttime hours as well.
Our temperature forecast is the same as it was yesterday and the day before that. We’ll see high temperatures in the 90s this afternoon across all of Texas. Outflow winds from nearby showers/storms will cool some folks off into the 80s by this afternoon. Heat index values will approach 100 degrees in some locations.
The chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue into Independence Day as we remain in an active weather pattern. That is not to say it will be a washout by any means – but there will be issues to deal with for some. The highest chance for nearby showers and thunderstorms will be across Northeast Texas, East Texas, Southeast Texas, and generally along and east of Interstate 35 in Central and South Texas. A few storms will also be possible along the Red River Valley. Some storms could be strong with damaging wind gusts and hail.
I know the main question for us is how will the weather be for the fireworks tomorrow night. The good news is we will see thunderstorm chances decrease by and after sunset. A majority of folks will be dry and in good shape for fireworks. However parts of Northeast Texas and East Texas could still be dealing with Mother Nature’s own fireworks during the evening and overnight hours. I believe most of Texas will easily be able to get their firework shows in with no problem. A few unlucky locations will likely have to delay their shows. Temperatures will range from the upper 80s to lower 90s for firework shows tomorrow evening. It’s going to be the usual Texas warm – but nothing crazy hot.