The hurricane hunters investigating Invest 91 have found an organizing system in the northwest Gulf of Mexico. Based on their observations maximum sustained surface winds are now 50 MPH in a small section of the storm. A broad, but definite low level circulation has also developed since the earlier flight today. As such we’ll likely have advisories on Tropical Storm Bill issued by 10 PM CDT. I want to emphasis this will not result in any forecast changes. Tropical storm or not we’re going to get all the moisture, the rain, the gusty winds, and the tornado threat. This is not a hurricane nor do I expect it to become one. This is not the kind of storm that will knock out power to hundreds of thousands of people. Flooding is going to be the biggest impact with this storm from the heavy rain. We’ll share the latest forecast information with you by 10 PM.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Surface observations and preliminary data from an Air Force Reserve
Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft currently investigating the area of
low pressure located about 200 miles southeast of the middle Texas
coast indicate that the center has become better defined since
earlier today. If these trends continue, advisories will be
initiated later this evening on Tropical Storm Bill.

1. Data from the aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds with
the low are near 50 mph. Interests in and along the northwestern
Gulf of Mexico should continue to monitor the progress of this
system as it moves northwestward toward the Texas coast. Regardless
of tropical cyclone formation, tropical storm conditions are likely
along portions of the middle and upper Texas coast, and possible in
extreme southwestern Louisiana, tonight and Tuesday. The system is
also likely to bring heavy rainfall with possible flooding across
portions of eastern Texas and western Louisiana. For additional
information, please see High Seas Forecasts and products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent