5-Day Tropical Weather Outlook and Chance of Development

5-Day Tropical Weather Outlook and Chance of Development

It sure has been a long time since I’ve gotten to talk about tropical weather! It only seems like three months ago I was talking about winter storms and ice… oh wait I was! Anyway a few weather models are suggesting we may end up with some tropical mischief by next week. This evening we have a disorganized area of weather over the Yucatan Peninsula a few hundred miles southwest of Cancun. As this area of disturbed weather moves northeast into the Gulf of Mexico next week there are a few signs it may try to spin up into a weak tropical system. The National Hurricane Center has given it a low chance of developing over the next five days – but we’ll have to watch it. If it is able to develop into a tropical depression or weak tropical storm I’m not anticipating something stronger then that. The primary problem with any system (tropical or not) is the potential for enhanced rainfall totals. We’re talking about an airmass ripe with moisture and capable of big-time rains if there’s a way to condense that moisture into widespread rain. For that reason alone we’ll watch the system closely since it could bring big-time rain to parts of South/Southeast Texas next week if it develops. The Weather Prediction Center already has hinted at this potential in their 7-Day rainfall forecast. Keep in mind this forecast will change so don’t take the rain totals in Southeast Texas to heart just yet.

7-Day rain total forecast from the Weather Prediction Center

7-Day rain total forecast from the Weather Prediction Center