The ridge of high pressure that has been dominating our forecast for the past several days will begin to weaken and shift west by the weekend. At the same time, the northern jetstream…the upper air current that drives weather systems across North America…will take a sharp dip south and allow a cold front to drop into the state by Friday. This will bring rain and thunderstorm chances back to parts of the panhandle and northern Texas Friday into Saturday, and into central and southeastern parts of the state by Sunday. Thankfully, we won’t be talking about widespread heavy rain amounts like we saw last week with Tropical Storm Bill! We certainly don’t need anymore of that!
The cold front will begin dropping into the panhandle by late Thursday into Friday. It won’t bring a remarkable change to daily high temperatures with temps still reaching the mid to upper 80s, but it kick off some rain and thunderstorm chances along the frontal boundary as it slowly works its way into the state Friday into Saturday morning. Best chances for scattered storms Friday will be across the southern panhandle and adjacent west and northwest Texas. Rain chances will continue overnight Friday into early Saturday with redevelopment of a few strong storms possible on Saturday afternoon across parts of north central and northeast Texas. Rainfall accumulations look to be around 1/2 inch or less across most areas due to the relatively scattered nature of the thunderstorm coverage. By Sunday, rain and thunderstorm chances will shift into south central and southeast Texas with a few strong storms possible as we reach peak daytime heating on Sunday. Hard to say for certain where the strongest storms will line up since that will depend on where the cool front is at by peak heating each day, but we will have enough instability in the atmosphere for some strong storms with gusty winds and lightning being the main threats. Folks with outdoor plans over the weekend, especially during the afternoon hours, will want to check back with us as the forecast continues to refine!