The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma has expanded the possible severe weather risk area for this afternoon and evening. I think that’s a good call as we should see a pretty good line of storms move east by this evening. Initial thunderstorm development should happen around 2 to 3 PM across the western Texas Panhandle and South Plains. It does look like we will see more wind shear compared to what we were looking at earlier this morning. As such a few of the initial storms may be supercellular in nature with the possibility of very large hail. A couple tornadoes will also be possible due to enhanced low level wind shear in parts of the South Plains and Rolling Plains.
We should see a fairly quick transition to a squall line by dinner time. As that occurs we’ll see the tornado and very large hail risk begin to taper down. Damaging wind gusts of 60-70+ MPH will be possible with the squall line along with hail as it moves east across the risk area this evening. The line of storms should be approaching Interstate 44 from southwest Oklahoma to Wichita Falls around 9-10 PM. By that point we should see it starting to weaken severe-wise as it outruns the better storm dynamics. Heavy rain will also be possible with some flooding potential.
I’ve included an animation of a simulated radar image through this evening. This animation is from the High Resolution Rapid Refresh short-term weather model and seems to show trends pretty well for today. Times are in the top-right part of the image in eastern time (so convert it back one hour to central).
Due to the relatively early nature of the show this afternoon and distance required to get there from D/FW and Oklahoma City we won’t be chasing today. However we will be posting severe weather updates and sharing pictures on our social media feeds from other chasers who will be out there today.