Good morning and welcome to the June 22nd Texas Weather Roundup! We’re heating up and heading into a full week of summer before another pattern change brings back stormier weather. Looking above around half way up the atmosphere we’ve got a high pressure sitting across New Mexico. The warmer the atmosphere the more it expands (and thus higher it goes). Likewise you see the atmosphere contract during cooler weather throughout the atmosphere. The primary jetstream is cranking across the Northern Plains and Midwest where an outbreak of severe thunderstorms and a potential derecho will race across the region today. Down south in Texas we’ve got weak winds aloft which is typical for a summer-time pattern.
Temperatures will climb into the 90s across most of Texas by this afternoon. Humid conditions will result in heat index values about 5 degrees warmer than surface temperatures. Extreme West Texas and the northwest Texas Panhandle will likely approach 100 degrees. El Paso is forecast to climb to 102 degrees by this afternoon. Winds will be out of the south or southeast with gusty winds expected out in West Texas.
Rain and popup storms will be highest today across South-Central and Deep South Texas into Southeast Texas along the coast. The strongest storms will be capable of producing frequent cloud to ground lightning, small hail, gusty winds, and localized flooding. Not everyone in those zones will get wet today nor will it rain all the time. Storms will die down after sunset.
Summertime weather will continue most of this week but chances are already on the horizon. The jetstream will dip south allowing for a cooler airmass to move in along with increasing storm chances. At this time we’re not forecasting widespread flooding rains but we’ll keep watching the forecast.