Good morning and happy Thursday! Welcome to the June 11, 2015 Texas Weather Roundup! This is our version of a daily forecast that discusses any upcoming hazardous or interesting weather. We post it every day so keep an eye out!

500 millibar heights and winds this afternoon. Located around 18,500 feet above sea level 500 millibars is the halfway point between the top of the atmosphere and the surface.

500 millibar heights and winds this afternoon. Located around 18,500 feet above sea level 500 millibars is the halfway point between the top of the atmosphere and the surface.

Looking around 18,500 feet above sea level or about half way up the atmosphere we’re in the midst of a pattern change. After a week of being under a heat ridge or area of high pressure we’re seeing the subtropical jet stream becoming active once again. A low pressure system will be located over Utah this afternoon but is only making slow progress to the east. The surface low is in conjunction with a positive-tilt shortwave trough. This system will increase rain chances tonight and especially tomorrow across the Texas Panhandle, West Texas, and eventually Northwest Texas by tomorrow night.

High temperature forecast today ,June 11

High temperature forecast today ,June 11

Chance of rain today (June 11)

Chance of rain today (June 11)

Thursday Night/Friday Morning low temperature forecast

Thursday Night/Friday Morning low temperature forecast

It looks like Wednesday featured our highest temperatures of the week. We’ll be a tad cooler today but the difference will be so small you won’t even notice. Another hot and humid day is forecast. Temperatures will climb back into the 90s this afternoon with a few 100s possible in the Permian Basin. As usual for a summer day we’ll see a couple showers and a stray storm pop up this afternoon in Southeast Texas as the seabreeze moves onshore. Otherwise shore weather looks good. Temperatures will be slow to cool off after sunset and tonight will be warmer for parts of Central and North Texas compared to previous nights thanks to increasing moisture.

Rain accumulation forecast through Monday

Rain accumulation forecast through Monday

Rain chances really ramp up Friday Night into Saturday. The rain chances will continue through Monday. We don’t expect a washout nor will everyone see rain. Right now it looks like folks from western Oklahoma, the eastern Texas Panhandle, south through West Texas will have the best chance of seeing heavy rain. There is a possibility of a localized area of very heavy rain resulting in accumulations exceeding 6 inches. That zone will probably set up somewhere in the above mentioned locations. It goes without saying that several inches of rain would cause a flooding risk. We’ll continue to monitor that threat as we get into the weekend and provide more specific information.