We’ve finally seen the thunderstorms across the Caprock and southeast Texas Panhandle northeast into Central Oklahoma organize into a squall line. This line of storms is making slow but sure progress to the east. The storms in this line are not currently severe but I can’t rule out a few 60+ MPH wind gusts and hail as the line moves east through 11 PM. Based on current speed we should see storms approaching Wichita Falls around midnight give or take an hour. They should be slowly weakening and sub-severe with gusty winds and heavy rain. The storms may drop a quick inch or two of rain. If for some reason we see the storms stall out or start ‘training’ over the same area then we’ll have to watch out for flash flooding.
Storms in the South Plains and Permian Basin have shown a decrease in organization over the past hour. Part of that is due to them sending out cold outflow and cutting off their updrafts. Another reason may be an increasing cap now that we’re approaching sunset. Either way we should see a continued weakening trend through the evening hours.
Finally we’ve seen most storms in Southeast and East Texas dissipate as expected now that the sun has set. We’ll do the same thing again tomorrow except shower/storm coverage in those areas may actually be greater.