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At 4 PM the center of Tropical Storm Bill is located 25 miles west of Port O’Connor or 90 miles west/southwest of Freeport. The storm is moving northwest at 9 PM. Things have remained comparatively calm this afternoon. That’s going to change tonight as the low continues to move northwest and actually becomes more organized. Very heavy rains will develop on the north and eastern side of the system and dangerous flash flooding probable. Spinup tornadoes will also be a threat in those same areas of the storm. I’ll have a more detailed timing forecast out after 5 PM. For now I’ll leave you with a forecast radar projection from the HRRR weather model for tonight. Times are in the top-right portion of the graphic and are in eastern time (so subtract an hour).

hrrr_2015061619_ref_tx

TROPICAL STORM BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022015
400 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

…BILL BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD…
…FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES…

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…28.4N 96.8W
ABOUT 25 MI…40 KM W OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
ABOUT 90 MI…145 KM WSW OF FREEPORT TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…999 MB…29.50 INCHES