SPC Day 2

Severe weather will be possible on Monday as we set up for another active storm day. North Texas, Central Texas, Northeast Texas, East Texas, Southeast Texas, South-Central Texas, the Hill Country are all in the risk area. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes will all be possible.

The Texas Tech WRF (high resolution weather model) seems to have a good handle on tomorrow’s setup. We’ll see showers and a few thunderstorms underway by mid-morning in the Texas Hill Country into the Concho Valley and Big Country. This area of activity will move east and arrive at the Interstate 35 corridor around 1-2 PM while also spreading north into Northwest Texas and Southwest Oklahoma. While some severe weather will be possible north of Interstate 20 I believe the main issue will be some flooding. Severe weather may be a greater concern south of Interstate 20 into Central, East, and Southeast Texas. Regardless severe weather will be possible tomorrow.

By mid-afternoon storms will be spreading into Northeast and East Texas while beginning to end west of the D/FW Metroplex. More isolated severe storms are possible in Central Texas during this time which could pose some tornado threat. By dinner time a line of strong to severe storms will likely extend from near Texarkana southwest towards Austin. Not all storms will be severe but I do think we’ll have some issues with damaging winds, large hail, and some tornadoes. Flash flooding will be possible as well. By late evening most severe activity should be in Arkansas and Louisiana. A few showers and storms will continue across East and Southeast Texas.

That scenario is if the Texas Tech WRF is correct – but it probably isn’t 100% right. No weather model is always right completely. For example the North American Model just arriving this evening is showing a similar scenario but is a little slower and also has severe storms in South-Central Texas.

4KM NAM at 5 PM CDT Monday

4KM NAM at 5 PM CDT Monday

Hopefully this blog was able to give you a general forecast timeline for tomorrow. We’ll have updates tomorrow morning with the latest forecast information so please check back.