The severe weather threat today is conditional on thunderstorm development. At this time it looks like we could have thunderstorms fire up by late afternoon from the eastern Texas Panhandle southeast into Northwest and western North Texas. There remains some question on exactly where thunderstorms will fire up. Some indications are storms may fire up closer to Shamrock and Childress. Meanwhile there are a few other models that develop thunderstorms along a boundary in western North Texas. We’ll refine that aspect of the forecast later today when mesoscale details be clear. Regardless of where we see a few storms fire up this afternoon they’ll be in an extremely unstable environment. Mid and upper level winds will be fairly weak today but that will be offset partially by the extreme instablity. Low level winds will also be marginal for tornado production but directional shear will be decent along with speed shear. Combined with the instablity values any sustained supercell will be capable of producing significant severe weather. Giant hail up to the size of softballs, damaging wind gusts over 75 MPH, and tornadoes will be possible. While those threats sound significant the limiting number of storms will keep the severe weather threat fairly localized. A vast majority of Texans won’t see anything today but those that do end up under one of the storms this afternoon or evening could have extreme impacts.
Otherwise it’s going to be a very warm and humid day. All the rain that has fallen over the past few weeks will ensure today feels like a typical Florida day with high humidity.